🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

SJK cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over AC Oulu.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SJK beat AC Oulu 3-1 at OmaSp Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.67 xG and AC Oulu 1.13 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. SJK beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 0.98 / defence 0.83 against AC Oulu attack 0.97 / defence 1.24, drawn from 25/25 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it SJK 50% | Draw 24% | AC Oulu 26%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 61%, AC Oulu 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SJK's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

AC Oulu's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SJK 1.50 PPG, AC Oulu 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SJK win broke the near-deadlock. SJK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm. AC Oulu (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights