PK-35 1-1 FF Jaro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PK-35 at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this PK-35 vs FF Jaro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FF Jaro make the trip to Mustapekka Areena to face PK-35 in Veikkausliiga, Relegation. The match kicks off on Wednesday 21 October 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
FF Jaro have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FF Jaro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, FF Jaro have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PK-35 1.68 xG and FF Jaro 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PK-35 attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | FF Jaro attack 0.673 / defence 1.442. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.166. FF Jaro bring a strong defensive rating of 1.442 — this is suppressing PK-35's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 0 PK-35 games / 44 FF Jaro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PK-35 56% | Draw 24% | FF Jaro 20%. Fair-value odds: PK-35 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | FF Jaro 5.00. The model has a clear lean to PK-35 (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PK-35 as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PK-35 vs FF Jaro | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation | Venue: Mustapekka Areena • Kick-off: Wednesday 21 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PK-35 56% | Draw 24% | FF Jaro 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 48% | xG PK-35 1.68 / FF Jaro 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: PK-35 attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | FF Jaro attack 0.673 / def 1.442 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: PK-35 (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
PK-35 xG
Expected Goals
0.90
FF Jaro xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PK-35 vs FF Jaro kick off?
PK-35 vs FF Jaro kicked off at 15:30 on Wednesday 21 October 2026 at Mustapekka Areena.
What was the final score in PK-35 vs FF Jaro?
PK-35 1 - 1 FF Jaro.
Where is PK-35 vs FF Jaro being played?
The match is being played at Mustapekka Areena.
What competition is PK-35 vs FF Jaro part of?
PK-35 vs FF Jaro is a Relegation fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win PK-35 vs FF Jaro?
Our statistical model gives PK-35 a 56% chance of winning, FF Jaro a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making PK-35 the favourite.
Will both teams score in PK-35 vs FF Jaro?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both PK-35 and FF Jaro will score (BTTS).
Will PK-35 vs FF Jaro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between PK-35 and FF Jaro?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PK-35 and FF Jaro in?
FF Jaro (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. FF Jaro away split: 0.40 PPG from 10 | GF 0.50 / GA 2.30 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from PK-35's attack rating (0.85) and FF Jaro's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FF Jaro's attack (0.67x) against PK-35's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 0/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PK-35 Win
56%
1.80
24%
4.14
20%
4.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
PK-35 xG
Total xG
2.58
0.90
FF Jaro xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
4.97
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
19%
5.36
Win to Nil
23%
4.42
4%
26.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.5 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PK-35 vs FF Jaro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are PK-35 and FF Jaro expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for PK-35 and 0.90 for FF Jaro, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for PK-35 vs FF Jaro?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PK-35
Pre-Season
FF Jaro
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 25 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
PK-35
1
Draws
1
FF Jaro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PK-35 and FF Jaro?
From 2 meetings on record, PK-35 have won 0, FF Jaro have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PK-35 and FF Jaro last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2026, when FF Jaro 1-0 PK-35.
Who has won more matches between PK-35 and FF Jaro?
FF Jaro have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PK-35 home games / FF Jaro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
PK-35 and FF Jaro share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mustapekka Areena, Relegation, as PK-35 and FF Jaro drew 1-1 in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PK-35 1.68 xG and FF Jaro 0.90 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PK-35 attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against FF Jaro attack 0.67 / defence 1.44, drawn from 0/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PK-35 56% | Draw 24% | FF Jaro 20%, with PK-35 to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.