🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant VPS run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Mariehamn.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VPS beat Mariehamn 1-5 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.52 xG and VPS 2.13 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. VPS outscored their 2.13 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.99 / defence 1.29 against VPS attack 1.12 / defence 1.12, drawn from 32/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 27% | Draw 21% | VPS 52%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 57%, VPS 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mariehamn's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

VPS's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, VPS arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. Mariehamn (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VPS (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights