Mariehamn 0-0 VPS – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours VPS (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Mariehamn face VPS.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 11 as Mariehamn welcome VPS to Wiklöf Holding Arena. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 12 June 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mariehamn — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Mariehamn have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, VPS stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
VPS's form when playing away from home: 9W 0D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 away clean sheets from 10 games (80%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. VPS's 2.80 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Mariehamn's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Mariehamn's 30% rate and VPS's 10% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Mariehamn, 2 for VPS and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 1–2 with VPS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Mariehamn in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
VPS in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 59% versus VPS 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 50% | VPS 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.40 xG and VPS 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 1.024 / defence 1.070 | VPS attack 1.260 / defence 0.848. League average goals — home 1.607 / away 1.227. VPS have an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — the away xG of 1.65 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 32 Mariehamn games / 33 VPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 30% | Draw 29% | VPS 41%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | VPS 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Form shows strong BTTS No rates for both sides but Poisson BTTS probability is 63% — current-season attack strengths are higher than recent results suggest.
Poisson rates VPS as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VPS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 1.8 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. This conflicts with form data: Mariehamn 30% | VPS 10% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs VPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 Jun 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 30% | Draw 29% | VPS 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Mariehamn 1.40 / VPS 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 1.024 / def 1.070 | VPS attack 1.260 / def 0.848 | league avg home 1.607 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: VPS (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.65
VPS xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs VPS kick off?
Mariehamn vs VPS kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 12 June 2024 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs VPS?
Mariehamn 0 - 0 VPS.
Where is Mariehamn vs VPS being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs VPS part of?
Mariehamn vs VPS is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs VPS?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 30% chance of winning, VPS a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making VPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs VPS?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Mariehamn and VPS will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs VPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and VPS?
Record (3 meetings): Mariehamn 0W | Draws 1 | VPS 2W.
What form are Mariehamn and VPS in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. VPS (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Mariehamn's attack at 1.02x the league average against VPS's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VPS's attack versus Mariehamn's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VPS Win
30%
3.33
29%
3.49
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
3.05
1.65
VPS xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
19%
5.23
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
6%
17.41
10%
9.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.9 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs VPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and VPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.65 for VPS, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs VPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Mariehamn have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 15W 15D 26L record — L-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
VPS's form line: 29W 8D 19L from 56 games, 1.70 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, VPS are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mariehamn.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mariehamn have posted 1.18 PPG from 28 outings (8W 9D 11L).
On the road, VPS have gone 17W 3D 8L from 28 away games — 1.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mariehamn are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; VPS are on 1.68 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Current Season
VPS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and VPS in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 15W 15D 26L in their last 56 games (1.07 PPG), while VPS have gone 29W 8D 19L in their last 56 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or VPS away?
VPS's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.18 PPG; VPS away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Mariehamn or VPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mariehamn have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, VPS in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: VPS have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jun 2025, when VPS won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mariehamn's record when hosting VPS specifically: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Mariehamn
3
Draws
6
VPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and VPS?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 1, VPS have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and VPS last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when VPS 4-0 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and VPS?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 57%, VPS 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mariehamn) and 54% (VPS).
On the defensive side: VPS in 39%; Mariehamn have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / VPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play VPS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 43% of VPS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mariehamn vs VPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Mariehamn's recent games and 54% of VPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mariehamn and VPS tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, VPS in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mariehamn's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn and VPS finished level at 0-0 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.40 xG and VPS 1.65 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mariehamn fell 1.4 short of their projected output. VPS landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 1.02 / defence 1.07 against VPS attack 1.26 / defence 0.85, drawn from 32/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 30% | Draw 29% | VPS 41%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 50%, VPS 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
VPS's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, VPS arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Mariehamn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. VPS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.