Mariehamn 1-1 Turku PS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mariehamn at 52%, yet in-form Turku PS provide a compelling counter-argument — this Mariehamn vs Turku PS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Turku PS travel to Wiklof Holding Arena to take on Mariehamn in Veikkausliiga (matchday 1). The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Mariehamn stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Mariehamn's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Turku PS — last 2 games: 2W 0D 0L — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Turku PS are 1.50 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.87 xG and Turku PS 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.983 / defence 1.055 | Turku PS attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.251. Data: built from Mariehamn's last 22 games and Turku PS's last 0. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 52% | Draw 29% | Turku PS 20%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 1.93 | Draw 3.49 | Turku PS 5.12. Mariehamn hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.87 / 1.12) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mariehamn as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Turku PS (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mariehamn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Mariehamn's last 10 home games and Turku PS's last 2 games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's sample (Mariehamn 22 games, Turku PS 0) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs Turku PS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 1 | Venue: Wiklof Holding Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 52% | Draw 29% | Turku PS 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Mariehamn 1.87 / Turku PS 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.983 / def 1.055 | Turku PS attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Turku PS xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mariehamn vs Turku PS FAQs
What time does Mariehamn vs Turku PS kick off?
Mariehamn vs Turku PS kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Wiklof Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs Turku PS?
Mariehamn 1 - 1 Turku PS.
Where is Mariehamn vs Turku PS being played?
The match is being played at Wiklof Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs Turku PS part of?
Mariehamn vs Turku PS is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 1) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs Turku PS?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 52% chance of winning, Turku PS a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs Turku PS?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Mariehamn and Turku PS will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mariehamn vs Turku PS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Mariehamn's attack rating (0.98) and Turku PS's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Turku PS's attack versus Mariehamn's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Mariehamn's last 22 games and Turku PS's last 0, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
52%
1.93
29%
3.49
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
2.99
1.12
Turku PS xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
15%
6.49
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
3%
33.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.5 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mariehamn vs Turku PS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs Turku PS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and Turku PS expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.12 for Turku PS, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs Turku PS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mariehamn come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 1D 0L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W.
On the other side, Turku PS sit at 3.00 PPG from 2 outings (2W 0D 0L), a run that reads W-W across their last five.
Turku PS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Mariehamn are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Turku PS are on 3.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Turku PS's attacking output running into Mariehamn's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Mariehamn have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Turku PS in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Early Season
Turku PS
Early Season
Mariehamn (Home) vs Turku PS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mariehamn
Early Season
Turku PS
Early Season
❓ Mariehamn vs Turku PS Form FAQs
What form are Mariehamn and Turku PS in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Turku PS have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have Mariehamn or Turku PS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mariehamn have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Turku PS in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 3 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2026. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Aug 2026, when Turku PS won Turku PS 3-0 Mariehamn.
Mariehamn's record when hosting Turku PS specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Mariehamn
1
Draws
1
Turku PS
Recent Meetings
❓ Mariehamn vs Turku PS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Turku PS?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Mariehamn have won 1, Turku PS have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and Turku PS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Mariehamn 1-0 Turku PS.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / Turku PS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mariehamn vs Turku PS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mariehamn and Turku PS matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 50% of Turku PS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Mariehamn and Turku PS matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Mariehamn's recent games and 100% of Turku PS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Mariehamn and Turku PS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wiklof Holding Arena, Regular Season - 1, as Mariehamn and Turku PS drew 1-1 in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.87 xG and Turku PS 1.12 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Mariehamn fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.98 / defence 1.05 against Turku PS attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 22/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 52% | Draw 29% | Turku PS 20%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 0%, Turku PS 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Turku PS arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 2.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Turku PS managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.