Mariehamn 0-0 Lahti – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lahti at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mariehamn vs Lahti fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 20 as Mariehamn welcome Lahti to Wiklöf Holding Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 August 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Mariehamn have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mariehamn have posted 3W 3D 4L at Wiklöf Holding Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Mariehamn are significantly better at Wiklöf Holding Arena than their overall form suggests.
Lahti — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lahti, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, Lahti have posted 0W 5D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Mariehamn) versus 1.00 (Lahti). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Mariehamn, 2 for Lahti and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 0–3 with Lahti winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Mariehamn trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Lahti trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 52% versus Lahti 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 54% | Lahti 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.49 xG and Lahti 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.703 / defence 1.247 | Lahti attack 1.002 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.681 / away 1.331. Mariehamn's attack strength of 0.703 is below the league average — the 1.49 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Lahti bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing Mariehamn's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Mariehamn games / 41 Lahti games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 34% | Draw 24% | Lahti 42%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 2.94 | Draw 4.17 | Lahti 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lahti are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lahti offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates are neutral: Mariehamn 50% | Lahti 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs Lahti | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 34% | Draw 24% | Lahti 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Mariehamn 1.49 / Lahti 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.703 / def 1.247 | Lahti attack 1.002 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.681 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Lahti (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Lahti xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs Lahti kick off?
Mariehamn vs Lahti kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs Lahti?
Mariehamn 0 - 0 Lahti.
Where is Mariehamn vs Lahti being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs Lahti part of?
Mariehamn vs Lahti is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs Lahti?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 34% chance of winning, Lahti a 42% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lahti the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs Lahti?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Mariehamn and Lahti will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs Lahti have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Lahti?
Record (6 meetings): Mariehamn 3W | Draws 1 | Lahti 2W.
What form are Mariehamn and Lahti in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Lahti (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mariehamn's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Lahti's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Lahti's attack versus Mariehamn's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lahti Win
34%
2.90
24%
4.21
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
3.16
1.66
Lahti xG
2.90
34%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
19%
5.28
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
7%
15.31
9%
10.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.6 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs Lahti?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and Lahti expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.66 for Lahti, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs Lahti?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mariehamn come into this having played 46 games, going 10W 11D 25L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lahti sit at 0.98 PPG from 46 outings (10W 15D 21L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Lahti is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mariehamn on 0.89 PPG, Lahti on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Mariehamn's home form reads 5W 6D 11L across 22 games on their own ground, a 0.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Lahti have taken 0.73 points per game from 22 outings (2W 10D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Mariehamn are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Lahti are on 1.11 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
Lahti
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and Lahti in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 10W 11D 25L in their last 46 games (0.89 PPG), while Lahti have gone 10W 15D 21L in their last 46 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or Lahti away?
Mariehamn's home record (0.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 0.95 PPG; Lahti away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 20 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2022, when Mariehamn won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mariehamn's record when hosting Lahti specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mariehamn
3
Draws
4
Lahti
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Lahti?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 3, Lahti have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and Lahti last play each other?
They last met on 20 July 2026, when Mariehamn 0-2 Lahti.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and Lahti?
Lahti have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Lahti are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 46%, Lahti 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Mariehamn) and 46% (Lahti).
On the defensive side: Mariehamn have failed to score in 50% of games; Lahti in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / Lahti away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play Lahti?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 41% of Lahti's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mariehamn vs Lahti usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Mariehamn's recent games and 46% of Lahti's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mariehamn and Lahti tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Lahti in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mariehamn's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn and Lahti finished level at 0-0 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.49 xG and Lahti 1.66 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mariehamn fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Lahti landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.70 / defence 1.25 against Lahti attack 1.00 / defence 1.26, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 34% | Draw 24% | Lahti 42%, with Lahti to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 54%, Lahti 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lahti's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mariehamn 0.89 PPG, Lahti 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mariehamn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Lahti (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.