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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Mariehamn run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Kooteepee.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mariehamn beat Kooteepee 3-0 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.87 xG and Kooteepee 1.73 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Mariehamn beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kooteepee landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.80 / defence 1.35 against Kooteepee attack 0.80 / defence 1.50, drawn from 41/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 41% | Draw 24% | Kooteepee 35%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 47%, Kooteepee 79%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mariehamn's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Kooteepee's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mariehamn 0.95 PPG, Kooteepee 0.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mariehamn win broke the near-deadlock. Mariehamn (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.44 average — tighter than their form line. Kooteepee (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights