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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Mariehamn and Inter Turku share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mariehamn and Inter Turku finished level at 2-2 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.23 xG and Inter Turku 2.25 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 1.02 / defence 1.18 against Inter Turku attack 1.29 / defence 0.78, drawn from 28/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 20% | Draw 20% | Inter Turku 60%, with Inter Turku to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 57%, Inter Turku 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mariehamn's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Inter Turku's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Inter Turku arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Mariehamn (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Inter Turku (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights