Mariehamn 3-1 Inter Turku – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mariehamn at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mariehamn vs Inter Turku fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mariehamn host Inter Turku at Wiklöf Holding Arena in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 May 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Mariehamn — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Mariehamn at Wiklöf Holding Arena this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Inter Turku have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Inter Turku have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Mariehamn at 1.10 PPG versus Inter Turku's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Mariehamn have won 0, Inter Turku 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2023, ended 0–2 with Inter Turku winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Mariehamn in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Inter Turku in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mariehamn 59% and Inter Turku 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 50% | Inter Turku 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.74 xG and Inter Turku 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 1.051 / defence 1.145 | Inter Turku attack 0.933 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.390. Data: 26 Mariehamn games / 26 Inter Turku games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 41% | Draw 29% | Inter Turku 30%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Inter Turku 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.5 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 63% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mariehamn at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mariehamn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 2.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Mariehamn 30% | Inter Turku 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs Inter Turku | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 41% | Draw 29% | Inter Turku 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 67% | xG Mariehamn 1.74 / Inter Turku 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 1.051 / def 1.145 | Inter Turku attack 0.933 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Inter Turku xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs Inter Turku kick off?
Mariehamn vs Inter Turku kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs Inter Turku?
Mariehamn 3 - 1 Inter Turku.
Where is Mariehamn vs Inter Turku being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs Inter Turku part of?
Mariehamn vs Inter Turku is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs Inter Turku?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 41% chance of winning, Inter Turku a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs Inter Turku?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Mariehamn and Inter Turku will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs Inter Turku have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Inter Turku?
Record (3 meetings): Mariehamn 0W | Draws 1 | Inter Turku 2W.
What form are Mariehamn and Inter Turku in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Inter Turku (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Mariehamn's attack rating (1.05) and Inter Turku's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Inter Turku's attack versus Mariehamn's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
41%
2.45
29%
3.42
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
3.23
1.49
Inter Turku xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
17%
5.71
Win to Nil
9%
10.83
5%
19.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.3 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs Inter Turku?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and Inter Turku expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.49 for Inter Turku, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs Inter Turku?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mariehamn's recent record stands at 15W 15D 26L from 56 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-W in the last five.
Inter Turku, meanwhile, have gone 19W 11D 26L across 56 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mariehamn on 1.07 PPG, Inter Turku on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Mariehamn have managed 8W 9D 11L from 28 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Inter Turku's away record stands at 8W 6D 14L across 28 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Mariehamn are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Inter Turku are on 1.34 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Inter Turku in 62%.
Last 56 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Current Season
Inter Turku
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and Inter Turku in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 15W 15D 26L in their last 56 games (1.07 PPG), while Inter Turku have gone 19W 11D 26L in their last 56 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or Inter Turku away?
Mariehamn's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.18 PPG; Inter Turku away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mariehamn and Inter Turku runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Inter Turku go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Aug 2024, when Inter Turku won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mariehamn's record when hosting Inter Turku specifically: 1W 1D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Mariehamn
3
Draws
6
Inter Turku
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Inter Turku?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 1, Inter Turku have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and Inter Turku last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Mariehamn 0-2 Inter Turku.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and Inter Turku?
Inter Turku have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Inter Turku are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 57%, Inter Turku 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mariehamn) and 64% (Inter Turku). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mariehamn have failed to score in 29% of games; Inter Turku in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / Inter Turku away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play Inter Turku?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Mariehamn's games and 64% of Inter Turku's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mariehamn vs Inter Turku usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Mariehamn's matches and 64% of Inter Turku's.
Do Mariehamn and Inter Turku tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Inter Turku in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mariehamn cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Inter Turku.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn beat Inter Turku 3-1 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.74 xG and Inter Turku 1.49 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Mariehamn beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 1.05 / defence 1.15 against Inter Turku attack 0.93 / defence 1.12, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 41% | Draw 29% | Inter Turku 30%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 50%, Inter Turku 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Inter Turku's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mariehamn 1.07 PPG, Inter Turku 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mariehamn win broke the near-deadlock. Mariehamn (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm. Inter Turku (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.