Mariehamn 0-1 Honka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Honka at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Mariehamn face Honka.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Wiklöf Holding Arena plays host to Mariehamn versus Honka in Veikkausliiga (matchday 20). Kick-off: Friday 18 August 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Mariehamn have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Mariehamn have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Honka (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Honka have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Mariehamn, 1.40 for Honka — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Mariehamn, 2 for Honka and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Jun 2023, ended Mariehamn 1–2 Honka — a Honka win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Mariehamn half-time and goal-timing data (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Honka half-time and goal-timing data (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 61% versus Honka 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 48% | Honka 44%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Mariehamn surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Honka have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 0.77 xG and Honka 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.679 / defence 1.093 | Honka attack 0.731 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.179. Mariehamn's attack rating of 0.679 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.77. Honka's attack rating of 0.731 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Data: built from Mariehamn's last 41 games and Honka's last 41.
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 27% | Draw 36% | Honka 37%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 3.71 | Draw 2.74 | Honka 2.73. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS Yes probability 34% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Mariehamn's lower xG of 0.77 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Honka at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Honka if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.71 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 75% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Mariehamn's last 10 home games and Honka's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mariehamn 50% (last 10 home games) | Honka 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs Honka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 20 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Friday 18 August 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 27% | Draw 36% | Honka 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% (Under 75%) | BTTS Yes 34% (No 66%) | xG Mariehamn 0.77 / Honka 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.679 / def 1.093 | Honka attack 0.731 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.251 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Honka (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Honka xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mariehamn vs Honka FAQs
What time does Mariehamn vs Honka kick off?
Mariehamn vs Honka kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Friday 18 August 2023 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs Honka?
Mariehamn 0 - 1 Honka.
Where is Mariehamn vs Honka being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs Honka part of?
Mariehamn vs Honka is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 20) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs Honka?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 27% chance of winning, Honka a 37% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Honka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs Honka?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Mariehamn and Honka will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (66%).
Will Mariehamn vs Honka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (75%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mariehamn's attack at 0.68x the league average against Honka's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 0.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Honka's attack (0.73x) against Mariehamn's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from Mariehamn's last 41 games and Honka's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Honka Win
27%
3.71
36%
2.74
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.0%
Away win
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
1.71
0.94
Honka xG
3.71
27%
Home win
2.74
36%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.93
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
10%
9.53
17%
5.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.1 | 17.0 | 8.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mariehamn vs Honka Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs Honka?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.8%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and Honka expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Mariehamn and 0.94 for Honka, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs Honka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mariehamn's recent record stands at 12W 13D 21L from 46 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-D in the last five.
Honka, meanwhile, have gone 21W 12D 13L across 46 games — 1.63 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Honka by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mariehamn heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Mariehamn have managed 6W 7D 9L from their last 22 home games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Honka's away record stands at 7W 6D 9L across their last 22 away games, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Mariehamn are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Honka are on 1.54 scored and 0.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mariehamn have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
Honka
Blended
Mariehamn (Home) vs Honka (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mariehamn
Blended
Honka
Blended
❓ Mariehamn vs Honka Form FAQs
What form are Mariehamn and Honka in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 12W 13D 21L in their last 46 games (1.07 PPG), while Honka have gone 21W 12D 13L in their last 46 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or Honka away?
Honka's away record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.14 PPG; Honka away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Mariehamn or Honka been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mariehamn have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Honka in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between Mariehamn and Honka, the earliest from May 2021. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent in our data was on 18 August 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Honka have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mariehamn have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Honka — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Mariehamn
3
Draws
3
Honka
Recent Meetings
❓ Mariehamn vs Honka H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Honka?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Mariehamn have won 1, Honka have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and Honka last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 August 2023: Mariehamn 0-1 Honka.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and Honka?
Honka have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Honka see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 64%, Honka 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mariehamn) and 32% (Honka).
On the defensive side: Honka in 32%; Honka in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / Honka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mariehamn vs Honka Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mariehamn and Honka matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 46% of Honka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Mariehamn and Honka matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Mariehamn's recent games and 32% of Honka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mariehamn and Honka matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 50% of Honka's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Honka edge out Mariehamn 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Honka beat Mariehamn 0-1 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 0.77 xG and Honka 0.94 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.68 / defence 1.09 against Honka attack 0.73 / defence 0.91, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 27% | Draw 36% | Honka 37%, with Honka to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 52% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 48%, Honka 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Honka's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Honka arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Mariehamn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Honka (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.