Mariehamn 1-1 Haka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haka at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mariehamn vs Haka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Relegation Round - 1 as Mariehamn welcome Haka to Wiklöf Holding Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 September 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mariehamn — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Wiklöf Holding Arena this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Haka have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haka's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Mariehamn at 0.70 PPG versus Haka's 0.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Mariehamn register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Haka in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Mariehamn have won 4, Haka 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jul 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Mariehamn trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Haka trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 55% versus Haka 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 61% | Haka 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.62 xG and Haka 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.850 / defence 1.191 | Haka attack 0.839 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.672 / away 1.652. Data: 44 Mariehamn games / 44 Haka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 37% | Draw 25% | Haka 38%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Haka 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Haka at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mariehamn 60% | Haka 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Sep 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 37% | Draw 25% | Haka 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Mariehamn 1.62 / Haka 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.850 / def 1.191 | Haka attack 0.839 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.672 / away 1.652 • Poisson stance: Haka (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Haka xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs Haka kick off?
Mariehamn vs Haka kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 13 September 2025 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs Haka?
Mariehamn 1 - 1 Haka.
Where is Mariehamn vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs Haka part of?
Mariehamn vs Haka is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 37% chance of winning, Haka a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Mariehamn and Haka will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Haka?
Record (9 meetings): Mariehamn 4W | Draws 2 | Haka 3W.
What form are Mariehamn and Haka in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Haka (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Mariehamn's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Haka's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Haka's attack versus Mariehamn's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
37%
2.71
25%
4.01
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
3.27
1.65
Haka xG
2.71
37%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
19%
5.22
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
7%
14.13
8%
13.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.1 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.65 for Haka, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs Haka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Mariehamn have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 12W 11D 26L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haka's form line: 15W 9D 25L from 49 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mariehamn on 0.96 PPG, Haka on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Mariehamn have posted 1.12 PPG from 24 outings (7W 6D 11L).
On the road, Haka have gone 6W 5D 13L from 24 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Mariehamn are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Haka are on 1.43 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haka in 63%.
Last 49 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
Haka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and Haka in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 12W 11D 26L in their last 49 games (0.96 PPG), while Haka have gone 15W 9D 25L in their last 49 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or Haka away?
Mariehamn's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.12 PPG; Haka away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mariehamn and Haka runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 13 September 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Jul 2024, when Haka won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mariehamn's record when hosting Haka specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Mariehamn
3
Draws
3
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Haka?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 4, Haka have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and Haka last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2025, when Mariehamn 1-1 Haka.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and Haka?
Mariehamn have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 50%, Haka 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Mariehamn and 62% for Haka. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mariehamn have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play Haka?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Mariehamn's games and 62% of Haka's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mariehamn vs Haka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Mariehamn's matches and 62% of Haka's.
Do Mariehamn and Haka tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Haka in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mariehamn and Haka share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn and Haka finished level at 1-1 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Relegation Round - 1, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.62 xG and Haka 1.65 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.85 / defence 1.19 against Haka attack 0.84 / defence 1.14, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 37% | Draw 25% | Haka 38%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 61%, Haka 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Haka's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mariehamn 0.96 PPG, Haka 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Haka (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.