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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Mariehamn and Haka share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 16, as Mariehamn and Haka drew 1-1 in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.41 xG and Haka 1.67 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.89 / defence 1.31 against Haka attack 0.88 / defence 1.02, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 32% | Draw 26% | Haka 43%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 62%, Haka 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mariehamn's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Haka's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mariehamn 1.00 PPG, Haka 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights