Mariehamn 1-1 Gnistan – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Mariehamn at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mariehamn vs Gnistan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Gnistan travel to Wiklöf Holding Arena to take on Mariehamn in Veikkausliiga (matchday 8). The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 May 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Mariehamn have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Mariehamn's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Gnistan — last 2 games: 0W 1D 1L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Mariehamn carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Mariehamn's 30% BTTS rate and Gnistan's 0% (from Mariehamn's last 10 home games and Gnistan's last 2 games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Mariehamn have won 1, Gnistan 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2023, ended Mariehamn 3–0 Gnistan — a Mariehamn win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 2.12 xG and Gnistan 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 1.117 / defence 1.126 | Gnistan attack 1.181 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.577 / away 1.219. Gnistan's defence rating of 1.207 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Mariehamn's projected output up. Data: built from Mariehamn's last 29 games and Gnistan's last 8.
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 47% | Draw 25% | Gnistan 27%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 2.12 | Draw 3.94 | Gnistan 3.66. Mariehamn hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS Yes probability 73% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% — both xG figures (2.12 / 1.62) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Form (Mariehamn's last 10 home games and Gnistan's last 2 games) suggests only ~1.0 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 72% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows. Both teams scored in only 30% of Mariehamn's last 10 home games and 0% of Gnistan's last 2 games, but Poisson BTTS probability is 73% — the model's attack ratings are higher than recent results suggest.
On the Poisson output, Mariehamn are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mariehamn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Mariehamn's last 10 home games and Gnistan's last 2 games) averaging only 1.6 goals per game points the other way.
Multiple data sources are pointing in different directions on the likely outcome — reduce stake size to reflect the analytical uncertainty.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs Gnistan | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 8 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 47% | Draw 25% | Gnistan 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% (Under 28%) | BTTS Yes 73% (No 27%) | xG Mariehamn 2.12 / Gnistan 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 1.117 / def 1.126 | Gnistan attack 1.181 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.577 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Gnistan xG
73%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mariehamn vs Gnistan FAQs
What time does Mariehamn vs Gnistan kick off?
Mariehamn vs Gnistan kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs Gnistan?
Mariehamn 1 - 1 Gnistan.
Where is Mariehamn vs Gnistan being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs Gnistan part of?
Mariehamn vs Gnistan is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 8) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs Gnistan?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 47% chance of winning, Gnistan a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs Gnistan?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Mariehamn and Gnistan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mariehamn vs Gnistan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Mariehamn's attack at 1.12x the league average against Gnistan's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 2.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gnistan's attack versus Mariehamn's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Mariehamn's last 29 games and Gnistan's last 8 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
47%
2.12
25%
3.94
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
3.75
1.62
Gnistan xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.69
Clean Sheet
20%
5.06
12%
8.37
Win to Nil
9%
10.71
3%
30.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mariehamn vs Gnistan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs Gnistan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and Gnistan expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.62 for Gnistan, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs Gnistan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mariehamn's recent record stands at 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-W in the last five.
Gnistan, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 1L across 2 games — 0.50 PPG, with D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mariehamn by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gnistan heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Mariehamn are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Gnistan are on 0.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mariehamn have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Gnistan in 0%.
Defensively: Mariehamn have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Gnistan in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Early Season
Gnistan
Early Season
Mariehamn (Home) vs Gnistan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mariehamn
Early Season
Gnistan
Early Season
❓ Mariehamn vs Gnistan Form FAQs
What form are Mariehamn and Gnistan in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Gnistan have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have Mariehamn or Gnistan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mariehamn have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Gnistan in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from October 2023. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was on 11 July 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Gnistan have won each of the latest 6 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Oct 2023, when Mariehamn won Mariehamn 3-0 Gnistan.
Mariehamn's record when hosting Gnistan specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Mariehamn
2
Draws
6
Gnistan
Recent Meetings
❓ Mariehamn vs Gnistan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Gnistan?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Mariehamn have won 1, Gnistan have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and Gnistan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 July 2026: Gnistan 4-2 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and Gnistan?
Gnistan have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / Gnistan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mariehamn vs Gnistan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mariehamn and Gnistan matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 0% of Gnistan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Mariehamn and Gnistan matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Mariehamn's recent games and 50% of Gnistan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Mariehamn and Gnistan share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn and Gnistan finished level at 1-1 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 2.12 xG and Gnistan 1.62 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Mariehamn fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 1.12 / defence 1.13 against Gnistan attack 1.18 / defence 1.21, drawn from 29/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 47% | Draw 25% | Gnistan 27%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 50%, Gnistan 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Mariehamn arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Mariehamn shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gnistan scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.