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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as AC Oulu edge out Mariehamn 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AC Oulu beat Mariehamn 0-1 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.55 xG and AC Oulu 1.61 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mariehamn fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.85 / defence 1.25 against AC Oulu attack 0.87 / defence 1.16, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 36% | Draw 26% | AC Oulu 38%, with AC Oulu to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 60%, AC Oulu 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mariehamn's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

AC Oulu's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mariehamn 1.00 PPG, AC Oulu 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AC Oulu win broke the near-deadlock. Mariehamn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. AC Oulu (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights