Lahti 1-1 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lahti at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lahti face Mariehamn.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Lahti welcome Mariehamn to Lahden Stadion in Veikkausliiga (matchday 6). Kick-off is Sunday 10 May 2026 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Lahti have gone 2W 5D 3L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Lahti's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Lahti are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Mariehamn stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Mariehamn away from home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Lahti) versus 1.50 (Mariehamn). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Lahti, 2 for Mariehamn and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Sep 2024, ended Lahti 2–1 Mariehamn — a Lahti win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Lahti trading profile (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Mariehamn trading profile (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 71%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lahti 45% versus Mariehamn 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lahti 59% | Mariehamn 52%). Note also that Mariehamn surrender HT leads in 71% of cases while Lahti recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lahti 1.23 xG and Mariehamn 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lahti attack 0.840 / defence 1.211 | Mariehamn attack 0.808 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 0.970. Lahti's defence rating of 1.211 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Mariehamn's projected output up. Data: built from Lahti's last 5 games and Mariehamn's last 27.
Result probabilities: Lahti 41% | Draw 32% | Mariehamn 27%. Fair-value odds: Lahti 2.42 | Draw 3.16 | Mariehamn 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lahti at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lahti offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — low conviction — though recent form (Lahti's last 10 home games and Mariehamn's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches point the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Lahti 50% (last 10 home games) | Mariehamn 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lahti vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 6 | Venue: Lahden Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lahti 41% | Draw 32% | Mariehamn 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Lahti 1.23 / Mariehamn 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Lahti attack 0.840 / def 1.211 | Mariehamn attack 0.808 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.247 / away 0.970 • Poisson stance: Lahti (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Lahti xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Mariehamn xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lahti vs Mariehamn FAQs
What time does Lahti vs Mariehamn kick off?
Lahti vs Mariehamn kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Lahden Stadion.
What was the final score in Lahti vs Mariehamn?
Lahti 1 - 1 Mariehamn.
Where is Lahti vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Lahden Stadion.
What competition is Lahti vs Mariehamn part of?
Lahti vs Mariehamn is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 6) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Lahti vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives Lahti a 41% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lahti the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lahti vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Lahti and Mariehamn will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Lahti vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lahti's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Mariehamn's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Mariehamn's attack versus Lahti's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lahti's last 5 games and Mariehamn's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lahti Win
41%
2.42
32%
3.16
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Lahti xG
Total xG
2.18
0.95
Mariehamn xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
16%
6.26
8%
12.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 10.7 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.2 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lahti vs Mariehamn Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lahti vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Lahti and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Lahti and 0.95 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Lahti vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lahti's recent record stands at 5W 12D 12L from 29 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-W in the last five.
Mariehamn, meanwhile, have gone 9W 8D 12L across 29 games — 1.21 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lahti on 0.93 PPG, Mariehamn on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lahti have managed 5W 5D 4L from their last 14 home games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.93 PPG overall — Lahti are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Mariehamn's away record stands at 4W 5D 5L across their last 14 away games, a 1.21 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Lahti are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.24 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mariehamn in 62%.
Last 29 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lahti
Pre-Season
Mariehamn
Blended
Lahti (Home) vs Mariehamn (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lahti
Pre-Season
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Lahti vs Mariehamn Form FAQs
What form are Lahti and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
Lahti have gone 5W 12D 12L in their last 29 games (0.93 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 9W 8D 12L in their last 29 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lahti at home or Mariehamn away?
Lahti's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lahti at home: 1.43 PPG; Mariehamn away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was as recently as 8 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Lahti have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Sep 2022, when Mariehamn won Mariehamn 6-0 Lahti.
Lahti's record when hosting Mariehamn specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lahti
3
Draws
2
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Lahti vs Mariehamn H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lahti and Mariehamn?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lahti have won 5, Mariehamn have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lahti and Mariehamn last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 September 2026: Lahti 2-1 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between Lahti and Mariehamn?
Lahti have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lahti are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lahti 43%, Mariehamn 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Lahti) and 50% (Mariehamn).
On the defensive side: Lahti keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Lahti have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lahti home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lahti vs Mariehamn Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lahti and Mariehamn matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Lahti's games and 71% of Mariehamn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lahti and Mariehamn matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Lahti's recent games and 50% of Mariehamn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lahti and Mariehamn matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Lahti's recent matches and 71% of Mariehamn's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lahti and Mariehamn share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lahti and Mariehamn finished level at 1-1 at Lahden Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lahti 1.23 xG and Mariehamn 0.95 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lahti attack 0.84 / defence 1.21 against Mariehamn attack 0.81 / defence 1.18, drawn from 5/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lahti 41% | Draw 32% | Mariehamn 27%, with Lahti to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lahti 59%, Mariehamn 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lahti's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Mariehamn's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lahti 0.93 PPG, Mariehamn 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mariehamn (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.