KuPS 3-1 VPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KuPS at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KuPS vs VPS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Championship Round - 1 sees VPS travel to Väre Areena to take on KuPS. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 September 2024, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, KuPS stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Väre Areena, KuPS have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — KuPS are significantly better at Väre Areena than their overall form suggests.
VPS — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for VPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VPS's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
KuPS are in the better shape of the two on current Veikkausliiga data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. KuPS register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, VPS in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for KuPS, 2 for VPS and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2024, ended 3–1 with KuPS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
KuPS in-play tendencies (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
VPS in-play tendencies (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KuPS 49% versus VPS 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KuPS 49% | VPS 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 1.92 xG and VPS 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 1.132 / defence 0.791 | VPS attack 0.863 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.248. KuPS's defence rating of 0.791 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 KuPS games / 44 VPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KuPS 62% | Draw 23% | VPS 15%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | VPS 6.67. The model has a clear lean to KuPS (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, KuPS are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: KuPS 60% | VPS 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs VPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: Väre Areena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 62% | Draw 23% | VPS 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 50% | xG KuPS 1.92 / VPS 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 1.132 / def 0.791 | VPS attack 0.863 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.615 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: KuPS (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
0.85
VPS xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KuPS vs VPS kick off?
KuPS vs VPS kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Väre Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs VPS?
KuPS 3 - 1 VPS.
Where is KuPS vs VPS being played?
The match is being played at Väre Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs VPS part of?
KuPS vs VPS is a Championship Round - 1 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs VPS?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 62% chance of winning, VPS a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs VPS?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both KuPS and VPS will score (BTTS).
Will KuPS vs VPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and VPS?
Record (5 meetings): KuPS 3W | Draws 0 | VPS 2W.
What form are KuPS and VPS in?
KuPS (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. VPS (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates KuPS's attack at 1.13x the league average against VPS's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VPS's attack versus KuPS's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
62%
1.62
23%
4.41
15%
6.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
KuPS xG
Total xG
2.77
0.85
VPS xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
6.46
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
15%
6.81
Win to Nil
26%
3.79
2%
43.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 10.2 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs VPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are KuPS and VPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for KuPS and 0.85 for VPS, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs VPS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
KuPS's recent record stands at 29W 10D 10L from 49 games, a 1.98 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VPS, meanwhile, have gone 26W 8D 15L across 49 games — 1.76 PPG, with L-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for VPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: KuPS on 1.98 PPG, VPS on 1.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, KuPS have managed 17W 1D 7L from 25 games — 2.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VPS's away record stands at 13W 3D 9L across 25 trips, a 1.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
KuPS are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; VPS are on 1.57 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Blended
VPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KuPS and VPS in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 29W 10D 10L in their last 49 games (1.98 PPG), while VPS have gone 26W 8D 15L in their last 49 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or VPS away?
KuPS's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 2.08 PPG; VPS away: 1.68 PPG.
Have KuPS or VPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, VPS in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between KuPS and VPS runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
KuPS's record when hosting VPS specifically: 3W 0D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
KuPS
2
Draws
3
VPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and VPS?
From 10 meetings on record, KuPS have won 5, VPS have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and VPS last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when KuPS 3-1 VPS.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and VPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KuPS 44%, VPS 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (KuPS) and 56% (VPS).
On the defensive side: KuPS keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; VPS in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / VPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KuPS play VPS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of KuPS's recent matches and 48% of VPS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KuPS vs VPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of KuPS's recent games and 56% of VPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KuPS and VPS tend to score early?
KuPS have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, VPS in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
KuPS cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over VPS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat VPS 3-1 at Väre Areena, Championship Round - 1, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.92 xG and VPS 0.85 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. KuPS beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.13 / defence 0.79 against VPS attack 0.86 / defence 1.05, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 62% | Draw 23% | VPS 15%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 49%, VPS 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
VPS's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — KuPS 1.98 PPG, VPS 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KuPS win broke the near-deadlock. KuPS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm. VPS (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.