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Prediction vindicated as KuPS edge out SJK 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

KuPS beat SJK 3-2 at Vare Areena, Championship Round - 2, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 2.17 xG and SJK 1.66 xG, a combined 3.83. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. KuPS beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.23 / defence 0.84 against SJK attack 1.20 / defence 1.06, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KuPS 49% | Draw 22% | SJK 29%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 56%, SJK 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KuPS's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

SJK's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — KuPS 2.00 PPG, SJK 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KuPS win broke the near-deadlock. KuPS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SJK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights