KuPS 2-4 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours KuPS (76%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as KuPS face Mariehamn.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mariehamn make the trip to Vare Areena to face KuPS in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
KuPS (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Vare Areena, KuPS have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mariehamn's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn's away record: 0W 1D 9L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward KuPS. A 2.00 PPG lead over Mariehamn (2.40 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — KuPS lead 4W to 2W over the last 9 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
KuPS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Mariehamn goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KuPS 57% versus Mariehamn 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KuPS 53% | Mariehamn 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 2.53 xG and Mariehamn 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 1.217 / defence 0.983 | Mariehamn attack 0.655 / defence 1.456. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.150. Mariehamn bring a strong defensive rating of 1.456 — this is suppressing KuPS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 KuPS games / 42 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KuPS 76% | Draw 15% | Mariehamn 9%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 1.32 | Draw 6.67 | Mariehamn 11.11. The model has a clear lean to KuPS (76%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates KuPS as the most likely outcome at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: KuPS 70% | Mariehamn 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Vare Areena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 76% | Draw 15% | Mariehamn 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 48% | xG KuPS 2.53 / Mariehamn 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 1.217 / def 0.983 | Mariehamn attack 0.655 / def 1.456 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: KuPS (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.53
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Mariehamn xG
48%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KuPS vs Mariehamn kick off?
KuPS vs Mariehamn kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 23 August 2026 at Vare Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs Mariehamn?
KuPS 2 - 4 Mariehamn.
Where is KuPS vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Vare Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs Mariehamn part of?
KuPS vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 76% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 9% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both KuPS and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will KuPS vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Mariehamn?
Record (9 meetings): KuPS 4W | Draws 3 | Mariehamn 2W.
What form are KuPS and Mariehamn in?
KuPS (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Mariehamn (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates KuPS's attack at 1.22x the league average against Mariehamn's defence at 1.46x — combine the two and it projects 2.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mariehamn's attack (0.66x) against KuPS's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
76%
1.31
15%
6.65
9%
11.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.2%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.53
KuPS xG
Total xG
3.27
0.74
Mariehamn xG
1.31
76%
Home win
6.65
15%
Draw
11.42
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
8%
12.57
Win to Nil
36%
2.75
1%
143.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.2 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are KuPS and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 2.53 expected goals for KuPS and 0.74 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs Mariehamn?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
KuPS come into this having played 47 games, going 28W 13D 6L for 2.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mariehamn sit at 0.85 PPG from 47 outings (9W 13D 25L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.21 PPG clear of Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
KuPS's home form reads 15W 5D 3L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Mariehamn have taken 0.65 points per game from 23 outings (3W 6D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
KuPS are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 0.96 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KuPS and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 28W 13D 6L in their last 47 games (2.06 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 9W 13D 25L in their last 47 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or Mariehamn away?
KuPS's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 2.17 PPG; Mariehamn away: 0.65 PPG.
Have KuPS or Mariehamn been keeping clean sheets recently?
KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Mariehamn in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won 3-0 on 25 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KuPS have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
KuPS
3
Draws
3
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Mariehamn?
From 10 meetings on record, KuPS have won 4, Mariehamn have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when KuPS 2-4 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and Mariehamn?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KuPS 65%, Mariehamn 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (KuPS) and 52% (Mariehamn). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mariehamn in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KuPS play Mariehamn?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of KuPS's games and 52% of Mariehamn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is KuPS vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of KuPS's matches and 52% of Mariehamn's.
Do KuPS and Mariehamn tend to score early?
KuPS have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mariehamn cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over KuPS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn beat KuPS 2-4 at Vare Areena, Regular Season - 21, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 2.53 xG and Mariehamn 0.74 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Mariehamn outscored their 0.74 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.22 / defence 0.98 against Mariehamn attack 0.66 / defence 1.46, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 76% | Draw 15% | Mariehamn 9%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 76%. Instead the game produced a Mariehamn win, an outcome the model had rated at just 9% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 53%, Mariehamn 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Mariehamn's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 0.85. Form was overturned, with Mariehamn winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. KuPS (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mariehamn (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.