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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant KuPS run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Kooteepee.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

KuPS beat Kooteepee 3-0 at Vare Areena, Regular Season - 6, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 2.01 xG and Kooteepee 0.96 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. KuPS beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kooteepee landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.09 / defence 0.62 against Kooteepee attack 1.02 / defence 1.21, drawn from 28/5 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KuPS 62% | Draw 21% | Kooteepee 17%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 56%, Kooteepee 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KuPS's trading profile (27 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Kooteepee's trading profile (27 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 0.74. The form guide was vindicated by the result. KuPS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.14 average — above their attacking norm. Kooteepee (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights