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Dominant Ilves run riot with a 0-3 hammering of KuPS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ilves beat KuPS 0-3 at Vare Areena, Regular Season - 10, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.42 xG and Ilves 1.15 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. KuPS fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Ilves outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.02 / defence 0.70 against Ilves attack 1.11 / defence 1.01, drawn from 33/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KuPS 43% | Draw 26% | Ilves 31%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Ilves win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 46%, Ilves 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KuPS's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Ilves's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.61. Form was overturned, with Ilves winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. KuPS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ilves (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights