KuPS 0-1 Haka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KuPS at 76%, yet other data sources diverge — this KuPS vs Haka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
KuPS host Haka at Väre Areena in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 12 June 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
KuPS — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS at Väre Areena this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Väre Areena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haka stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Haka have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: KuPS 2.10 PPG, Haka 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, KuPS have won 2, Haka 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
KuPS trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Haka trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KuPS 43% versus Haka 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KuPS 43% | Haka 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 2.98 xG and Haka 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 1.444 / defence 0.875 | Haka attack 0.942 / defence 1.285. League average goals — home 1.607 / away 1.227. KuPS carry an above-average attack strength of 1.444 — their λ of 2.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Haka bring a strong defensive rating of 1.285 — this is suppressing KuPS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 KuPS games / 32 Haka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KuPS 76% | Draw 16% | Haka 8%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 1.32 | Draw 6.25 | Haka 12.50. The model has a clear lean to KuPS (76%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.99. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.99 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.98 / 1.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates KuPS as the most likely outcome at 76% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: KuPS 20% | Haka 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Väre Areena • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 Jun 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 76% | Draw 16% | Haka 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 62% | xG KuPS 2.98 / Haka 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 1.444 / def 0.875 | Haka attack 0.942 / def 1.285 | league avg home 1.607 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: KuPS (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.98
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Haka xG
62%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KuPS vs Haka kick off?
KuPS vs Haka kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 12 June 2024 at Väre Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs Haka?
KuPS 0 - 1 Haka.
Where is KuPS vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at Väre Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs Haka part of?
KuPS vs Haka is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 76% chance of winning, Haka a 8% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both KuPS and Haka will score (BTTS).
Will KuPS vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Haka?
Record (5 meetings): KuPS 2W | Draws 2 | Haka 1W.
What form are KuPS and Haka in?
KuPS (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Haka (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
KuPS's attacking strength (1.44x league average) is weighed against Haka's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.98. The same calculation in reverse, Haka's attack versus KuPS's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.3%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.2%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
76%
1.32
16%
6.35
8%
11.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
3 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.98
KuPS xG
Total xG
3.99
1.01
Haka xG
1.32
76%
Home win
6.35
16%
Draw
11.86
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
5%
19.71
Win to Nil
28%
3.63
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are KuPS and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 2.98 expected goals for KuPS and 1.01 for Haka, a combined total of 3.99.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs Haka?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, KuPS have picked up 2.04 PPG on a 33W 11D 10L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haka's form line: 20W 17D 17L from 54 games, 1.43 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-D. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, KuPS are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Haka.
Venue Form
On home soil, KuPS have posted 2.07 PPG from 27 outings (17W 5D 5L).
On the road, Haka have gone 9W 5D 13L from 27 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
KuPS are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Haka are on 1.39 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haka in 61%.
Defensively: KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Blended
Haka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KuPS and Haka in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 33W 11D 10L in their last 54 games (2.04 PPG), while Haka have gone 20W 17D 17L in their last 54 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or Haka away?
KuPS's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 2.07 PPG; Haka away: 1.19 PPG.
Have KuPS or Haka been keeping clean sheets recently?
KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Haka in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 2 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
KuPS go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Jun 2023, when KuPS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
KuPS's record when hosting Haka specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
KuPS
3
Draws
2
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Haka?
From 10 meetings on record, KuPS have won 5, Haka have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and Haka last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2025, when KuPS 3-2 Haka.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and Haka?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KuPS 37%, Haka 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (KuPS) and 59% (Haka).
On the defensive side: KuPS keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; KuPS have failed to score in 26% of games; Haka in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KuPS play Haka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of KuPS's recent matches and 48% of Haka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KuPS vs Haka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of KuPS's recent games and 59% of Haka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KuPS and Haka tend to score early?
KuPS have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Haka in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Haka defy the odds to beat KuPS 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haka beat KuPS 0-1 at Väre Areena, Regular Season - 11, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 2.98 xG and Haka 1.01 xG, a combined 3.99. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. KuPS fell 3.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.44 / defence 0.88 against Haka attack 0.94 / defence 1.28, drawn from 33/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 76% | Draw 16% | Haka 8%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 76%. Instead the game produced a Haka win, an outcome the model had rated at just 8% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 43%, Haka 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Haka's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.43. Form was overturned, with Haka winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. KuPS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward. Haka (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.