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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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KuPS and Gnistan share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

KuPS and Gnistan finished level at 1-1 at Vare Areena, Championship Round - 8, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 2.23 xG and Gnistan 1.47 xG, a combined 3.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. KuPS fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.19 / defence 0.87 against Gnistan attack 1.03 / defence 1.12, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KuPS 54% | Draw 22% | Gnistan 24%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 57%, Gnistan 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KuPS's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Gnistan's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. KuPS (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Gnistan (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights