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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant KuPS run riot with a 6-2 hammering of Gnistan.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

KuPS beat Gnistan 6-2 at Vare Areena, Regular Season - 13, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.45 xG and Gnistan 0.93 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 6-2 for 8 actual goals. KuPS beat their projection by 4.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gnistan outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.00 / defence 0.72 against Gnistan attack 0.87 / defence 0.95, drawn from 36/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KuPS 49% | Draw 27% | Gnistan 24%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 54%, Gnistan 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KuPS's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Gnistan's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was vindicated by the result. KuPS (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gnistan (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights