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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as KuPS edge out FF Jaro 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

KuPS beat FF Jaro 1-0 at Vare Areena, Regular Season - 3, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.29 xG and FF Jaro 0.99 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FF Jaro landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 0.95 / defence 0.78 against FF Jaro attack 0.88 / defence 1.00, drawn from 24/2 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it KuPS 43% | Draw 28% | FF Jaro 29%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 0%, FF Jaro 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Form vs Result

On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FF Jaro managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights