KuPS 4-1 AC Oulu – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours KuPS (65%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as KuPS face AC Oulu.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AC Oulu make the trip to Väre Areena to face KuPS in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 8 June 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
KuPS (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS's home record at Väre Areena: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Veikkausliiga appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Väre Areena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
AC Oulu have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
AC Oulu away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. KuPS's 2.10 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of AC Oulu's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Historically, KuPS have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 4 meetings, with AC Oulu managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Jun 2023, ended 1–0 with KuPS winning.
The historical record gives KuPS a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
KuPS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
AC Oulu goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KuPS 43% versus AC Oulu 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KuPS 43% | AC Oulu 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 2.87 xG and AC Oulu 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 1.366 / defence 0.909 | AC Oulu attack 1.258 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.266. KuPS carry an above-average attack strength of 1.366 — their λ of 2.87 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. AC Oulu bring a strong defensive rating of 1.324 — this is suppressing KuPS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. AC Oulu have an above-average attack strength of 1.258 — the away xG of 1.45 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 32 KuPS games / 31 AC Oulu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KuPS 65% | Draw 19% | AC Oulu 15%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 1.54 | Draw 5.26 | AC Oulu 6.67. The model has a clear lean to KuPS (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 4.32. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.32 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.87 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, KuPS are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 81% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: KuPS 20% | AC Oulu 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs AC Oulu | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Väre Areena • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Jun 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 65% | Draw 19% | AC Oulu 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 81% | BTTS 74% | xG KuPS 2.87 / AC Oulu 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 1.366 / def 0.909 | AC Oulu attack 1.258 / def 1.324 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: KuPS (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.87
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
1.45
AC Oulu xG
74%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KuPS vs AC Oulu kick off?
KuPS vs AC Oulu kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 8 June 2024 at Väre Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs AC Oulu?
KuPS 4 - 1 AC Oulu.
Where is KuPS vs AC Oulu being played?
The match is being played at Väre Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs AC Oulu part of?
KuPS vs AC Oulu is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs AC Oulu?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 65% chance of winning, AC Oulu a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs AC Oulu?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both KuPS and AC Oulu will score (BTTS).
Will KuPS vs AC Oulu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 81%.
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and AC Oulu?
Record (4 meetings): KuPS 4W | Draws 0 | AC Oulu 0W.
What form are KuPS and AC Oulu in?
KuPS (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. AC Oulu (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
KuPS's attacking strength (1.37x league average) is weighed against AC Oulu's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.87. Flip it around — AC Oulu's attack (1.26x) against KuPS's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 32/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 7.9%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.6%), 1-1 (6.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
65%
1.53
19%
5.21
15%
6.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.6%
Home win
2 – 2
5.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.87
KuPS xG
Total xG
4.32
1.45
AC Oulu xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.21
19%
Draw
6.48
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
81%
Over 2.5
1.23
19%
Under 2.5
5.26
63%
Over 3.5
1.59
37%
Under 3.5
2.70
43%
Over 4.5
2.33
57%
Under 4.5
1.75
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.36
26%
BTTS No
3.80
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
6%
17.69
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
1%
114.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.9 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs AC Oulu?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.9%.
How many goals are KuPS and AC Oulu expected to score?
The model projects 2.87 expected goals for KuPS and 1.45 for AC Oulu, a combined total of 4.32.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs AC Oulu?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
KuPS's recent record stands at 33W 11D 10L from 54 games, a 2.04 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AC Oulu, meanwhile, have gone 24W 10D 20L across 54 games — 1.52 PPG, with W-L-D-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours KuPS by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AC Oulu heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, KuPS have managed 16W 5D 5L from 26 games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AC Oulu's away record stands at 11W 4D 11L across 26 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
KuPS are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; AC Oulu are on 1.57 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AC Oulu in 61%.
Defensively: KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Blended
AC Oulu
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KuPS and AC Oulu in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 33W 11D 10L in their last 54 games (2.04 PPG), while AC Oulu have gone 24W 10D 20L in their last 54 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or AC Oulu away?
KuPS's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 2.04 PPG; AC Oulu away: 1.42 PPG.
Have KuPS or AC Oulu been keeping clean sheets recently?
KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, AC Oulu in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won 0-3 on 17 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KuPS have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AC Oulu — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
KuPS
1
Draws
2
AC Oulu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and AC Oulu?
From 10 meetings on record, KuPS have won 7, AC Oulu have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and AC Oulu last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when AC Oulu 2-0 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and AC Oulu?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KuPS 38%, AC Oulu 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (KuPS) and 73% (AC Oulu). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: KuPS keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; KuPS have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / AC Oulu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KuPS play AC Oulu?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of KuPS's recent matches and 69% of AC Oulu's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KuPS vs AC Oulu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of KuPS's matches and 73% of AC Oulu's.
Do KuPS and AC Oulu tend to score early?
KuPS have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, AC Oulu in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant KuPS run riot with a 4-1 hammering of AC Oulu.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat AC Oulu 4-1 at Väre Areena, Regular Season - 10, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 2.87 xG and AC Oulu 1.45 xG, a combined 4.32. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. KuPS beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.37 / defence 0.91 against AC Oulu attack 1.26 / defence 1.32, drawn from 32/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 65% | Draw 19% | AC Oulu 15%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 63% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 43%, AC Oulu 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
AC Oulu's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.52. Form held, and they took the win. KuPS (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm. AC Oulu (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.