🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Kooteepee and VPS share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kooteepee and VPS finished level at 2-2 at Arto Tolsa Areena, Regular Season - 2, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kooteepee 1.12 xG and VPS 1.56 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Kooteepee beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kooteepee attack 0.69 / defence 1.06 against VPS attack 0.96 / defence 1.01, drawn from 1/23 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kooteepee 27% | Draw 26% | VPS 47%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kooteepee 44%, VPS 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kooteepee's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

VPS's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, VPS arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.74. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kooteepee (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights