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Prediction vindicated as Turku PS edge out Kooteepee 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Turku PS beat Kooteepee 2-3 at Arto Tolsa Areena, Relegation, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kooteepee 1.44 xG and Turku PS 1.73 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Turku PS outscored their 1.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kooteepee attack 0.75 / defence 1.23 against Turku PS attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 22/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kooteepee 31% | Draw 25% | Turku PS 44%, with Turku PS to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kooteepee 100%, Turku PS 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Turku PS arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Kooteepee scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm. Turku PS shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.