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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kooteepee and Mariehamn share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Arto Tolsa Areena, Relegation Round - 4, as Kooteepee and Mariehamn drew 1-1 in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kooteepee 1.58 xG and Mariehamn 1.63 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kooteepee attack 0.73 / defence 1.24 against Mariehamn attack 0.80 / defence 1.28, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kooteepee 36% | Draw 25% | Mariehamn 39%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kooteepee 80%, Mariehamn 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kooteepee's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Mariehamn's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Mariehamn arrived the stronger side — 1.12 PPG against 0.68. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kooteepee (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line. Mariehamn (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights