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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kooteepee and Mariehamn share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kooteepee and Mariehamn finished level at 2-2 at Arto Tolsa Areena, Regular Season - 9, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kooteepee 0.89 xG and Mariehamn 1.41 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Kooteepee beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kooteepee attack 0.59 / defence 1.27 against Mariehamn attack 0.74 / defence 1.03, drawn from 8/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kooteepee 24% | Draw 27% | Mariehamn 49%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kooteepee 44%, Mariehamn 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kooteepee's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Mariehamn's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kooteepee 0.74 PPG, Mariehamn 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kooteepee (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm. Mariehamn (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights