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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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KuPS cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Kooteepee.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

KuPS beat Kooteepee 0-2 at Arto Tolsa Areena, Regular Season - 19, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kooteepee 1.19 xG and KuPS 1.43 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Kooteepee fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kooteepee attack 0.82 / defence 1.15 against KuPS attack 0.81 / defence 0.93, drawn from 18/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kooteepee 31% | Draw 28% | KuPS 42%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kooteepee 83%, KuPS 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kooteepee's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

KuPS's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.78. That form edge translated into the three points. Kooteepee (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. KuPS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights