🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Kooteepee and Inter Turku share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Arto Tolsa Areena, Regular Season - 16, as Kooteepee and Inter Turku drew 2-2 in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kooteepee 0.83 xG and Inter Turku 1.80 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Kooteepee beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kooteepee attack 0.74 / defence 1.17 against Inter Turku attack 1.04 / defence 0.74, drawn from 15/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kooteepee 16% | Draw 25% | Inter Turku 59%, with Inter Turku to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kooteepee 80%, Inter Turku 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kooteepee's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Inter Turku's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Inter Turku arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kooteepee (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm. Inter Turku (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights