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Dominant Ilves run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Kooteepee.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ilves beat Kooteepee 0-5 at Arto Tolsa Areena, Regular Season - 3, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kooteepee 1.14 xG and Ilves 1.47 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Kooteepee fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Ilves outscored their 1.47 projection by 3.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kooteepee attack 0.82 / defence 1.16 against Ilves attack 1.00 / defence 0.98, drawn from 2/24 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Kooteepee 29% | Draw 26% | Ilves 45%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kooteepee 44%, Ilves 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kooteepee's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Ilves's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Ilves arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.74. That form edge translated into the three points. Kooteepee (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ilves (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights