Kooteepee 0-5 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Ilves (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Kooteepee face Ilves.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Ilves travel to Arto Tolsa Areena to take on Kooteepee. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 April 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kooteepee stand at 1W 0D 9L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Kooteepee haven't played a Veikkausliiga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Kooteepee's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Arto Tolsa Areena this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Kooteepee are significantly better at Arto Tolsa Areena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Ilves have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Ilves — 2.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Ilves have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 5 encounters against Kooteepee's 0 victories.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2023, ended 0–3 with Ilves winning.
It is worth noting that Ilves have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Kooteepee trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Ilves trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 15% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kooteepee 41% versus Ilves 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kooteepee 44% | Ilves 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kooteepee 1.14 xG and Ilves 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kooteepee attack 0.818 / defence 1.163 | Ilves attack 1.000 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.261. Data: 2 Kooteepee games / 24 Ilves games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Kooteepee 29% | Draw 26% | Ilves 45%. Fair-value odds: Kooteepee 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Ilves 2.22. Ilves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ilves as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ilves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Kooteepee 40% | Ilves 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kooteepee vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Arto Tolsa Areena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Apr 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kooteepee 29% | Draw 26% | Ilves 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Kooteepee 1.14 / Ilves 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Kooteepee attack 0.818 / def 1.163 | Ilves attack 1.000 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Ilves (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Kooteepee xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Ilves xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kooteepee vs Ilves kick off?
Kooteepee vs Ilves kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 April 2025 at Arto Tolsa Areena.
What was the final score in Kooteepee vs Ilves?
Kooteepee 0 - 5 Ilves.
Where is Kooteepee vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Arto Tolsa Areena.
What competition is Kooteepee vs Ilves part of?
Kooteepee vs Ilves is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Kooteepee vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives Kooteepee a 29% chance of winning, Ilves a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kooteepee vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Kooteepee and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will Kooteepee vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kooteepee and Ilves?
Record (5 meetings): Kooteepee 0W | Draws 2 | Ilves 3W.
What form are Kooteepee and Ilves in?
Kooteepee (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Ilves (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kooteepee's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Ilves's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Ilves's attack versus Kooteepee's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/24 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
29%
3.41
26%
3.86
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Kooteepee xG
Total xG
2.60
1.47
Ilves xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
7%
14.80
14%
6.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.9 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kooteepee vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Kooteepee and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Kooteepee and 1.47 for Ilves, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Kooteepee vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kooteepee come into this having played 27 games, going 5W 5D 17L for 0.74 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. Kooteepee haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Ilves sit at 2.00 PPG from 27 outings (16W 6D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ilves carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.26 PPG clear of Kooteepee — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Kooteepee's home form reads 3W 3D 7L across 13 games on their own ground, a 0.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Ilves have taken 1.69 points per game from 13 outings (6W 4D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ilves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kooteepee are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 2.07 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Ilves in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kooteepee
Pre-Season
Ilves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kooteepee and Ilves in coming into this match?
Kooteepee have gone 5W 5D 17L in their last 27 games (0.74 PPG), while Ilves have gone 16W 6D 5L in their last 27 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kooteepee at home or Ilves away?
Ilves's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kooteepee at home: 0.92 PPG; Ilves away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Kooteepee or Ilves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kooteepee have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Ilves in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 July 2025, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ilves have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Apr 2025, when Ilves won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kooteepee's record when hosting Ilves specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Kooteepee
2
Draws
5
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kooteepee and Ilves?
From 7 meetings on record, Kooteepee have won 0, Ilves have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kooteepee and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 2 July 2025, when Ilves 2-1 Kooteepee.
Who has won more matches between Kooteepee and Ilves?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kooteepee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Ilves see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kooteepee 38%, Ilves 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 46% for Kooteepee and 15% for Ilves.
On the defensive side: Kooteepee keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Ilves in 46%; Kooteepee have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kooteepee home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kooteepee play Ilves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Kooteepee's recent matches and 38% of Ilves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kooteepee vs Ilves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Kooteepee's recent games and 15% of Ilves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kooteepee and Ilves tend to score early?
Kooteepee have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Ilves in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ilves run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Kooteepee.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves beat Kooteepee 0-5 at Arto Tolsa Areena, Regular Season - 3, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kooteepee 1.14 xG and Ilves 1.47 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Kooteepee fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Ilves outscored their 1.47 projection by 3.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kooteepee attack 0.82 / defence 1.16 against Ilves attack 1.00 / defence 0.98, drawn from 2/24 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Kooteepee 29% | Draw 26% | Ilves 45%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kooteepee 44%, Ilves 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kooteepee's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ilves's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ilves arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.74. That form edge translated into the three points. Kooteepee (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ilves (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.