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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant HJK Helsinki run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Kooteepee.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

HJK Helsinki beat Kooteepee 1-4 at Arto Tolsa Areena, Regular Season - 22, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kooteepee 0.99 xG and HJK Helsinki 2.30 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. HJK Helsinki outscored their 2.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kooteepee attack 0.72 / defence 1.15 against HJK Helsinki attack 1.24 / defence 0.83, drawn from 21/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kooteepee 14% | Draw 20% | HJK Helsinki 66%, with HJK Helsinki to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 79% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kooteepee 81%, HJK Helsinki 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kooteepee's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

HJK Helsinki's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, HJK Helsinki arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 0.67. That form edge translated into the three points. Kooteepee (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. HJK Helsinki (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights