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Shock result as Kooteepee defy the odds to beat FF Jaro 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kooteepee beat FF Jaro 3-2 at Arto Tolsa Areena, Regular Season - 12, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kooteepee 0.97 xG and FF Jaro 1.30 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Kooteepee beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kooteepee attack 0.70 / defence 1.25 against FF Jaro attack 0.69 / defence 0.94, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kooteepee 28% | Draw 28% | FF Jaro 44%, with FF Jaro to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Kooteepee win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kooteepee 0%, FF Jaro 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, FF Jaro arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Kooteepee winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kooteepee scored 3 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm. FF Jaro scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.