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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AC Oulu cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Kooteepee.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AC Oulu beat Kooteepee 1-3 at Arto Tolsa Areena, Regular Season - 5, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kooteepee 1.29 xG and AC Oulu 2.00 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. AC Oulu outscored their 2.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kooteepee attack 0.65 / defence 1.37 against AC Oulu attack 0.90 / defence 1.26, drawn from 4/27 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Kooteepee 24% | Draw 22% | AC Oulu 54%, with AC Oulu to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kooteepee 44%, AC Oulu 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kooteepee's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

AC Oulu's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kooteepee 0.74 PPG, AC Oulu 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AC Oulu win broke the near-deadlock. Kooteepee (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AC Oulu (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights