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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Inter Turku edge out VPS 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Inter Turku beat VPS 2-1 at Veritas Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter Turku 2.08 xG and VPS 1.22 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter Turku attack 1.26 / defence 0.75 against VPS attack 1.01 / defence 0.99, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Inter Turku 56% | Draw 22% | VPS 21%, with Inter Turku to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter Turku 61%, VPS 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Inter Turku's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

VPS's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Inter Turku 1.71 PPG, VPS 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Inter Turku win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights