Inter Turku 3-1 VPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours VPS (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Inter Turku face VPS.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Veritas Stadion plays host to Inter Turku versus VPS in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Friday 28 June 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Inter Turku's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Veritas Stadion, Inter Turku have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
VPS (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 2.80 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
VPS's form when playing away from home: 9W 0D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 away clean sheets from 10 games (80%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, VPS are the stronger side — 1.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Across the last 5 meetings, VPS have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Inter Turku's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2024, ended 1–3 with VPS winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. VPS have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Inter Turku half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
VPS half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inter Turku 62% versus VPS 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inter Turku 61% | VPS 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inter Turku 1.17 xG and VPS 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inter Turku attack 0.975 / defence 1.066 | VPS attack 1.080 / defence 0.792. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.304. VPS's defence strength of 0.792 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 35 Inter Turku games / 35 VPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inter Turku 27% | Draw 30% | VPS 43%. Fair-value odds: Inter Turku 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | VPS 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VPS at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VPS if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Inter Turku 80% | VPS 10%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inter Turku vs VPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Veritas Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 28 Jun 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inter Turku 27% | Draw 30% | VPS 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Inter Turku 1.17 / VPS 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Inter Turku attack 0.975 / def 1.066 | VPS attack 1.080 / def 0.792 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: VPS (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Inter Turku xG
Expected Goals
1.50
VPS xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inter Turku vs VPS kick off?
Inter Turku vs VPS kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 28 June 2024 at Veritas Stadion.
What was the final score in Inter Turku vs VPS?
Inter Turku 3 - 1 VPS.
Where is Inter Turku vs VPS being played?
The match is being played at Veritas Stadion.
What competition is Inter Turku vs VPS part of?
Inter Turku vs VPS is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Inter Turku vs VPS?
Our statistical model gives Inter Turku a 27% chance of winning, VPS a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making VPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inter Turku vs VPS?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Inter Turku and VPS will score (BTTS).
Will Inter Turku vs VPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inter Turku and VPS?
Record (5 meetings): Inter Turku 0W | Draws 1 | VPS 4W.
What form are Inter Turku and VPS in?
Inter Turku (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. VPS (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Inter Turku's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against VPS's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — VPS's attack (1.08x) against Inter Turku's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VPS Win
27%
3.67
30%
3.31
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Inter Turku xG
Total xG
2.67
1.50
VPS xG
3.67
27%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
6%
16.49
13%
7.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.4 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inter Turku vs VPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Inter Turku and VPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Inter Turku and 1.50 for VPS, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Inter Turku vs VPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Inter Turku's recent record stands at 19W 11D 26L from 56 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five.
VPS, meanwhile, have gone 29W 8D 19L across 56 games — 1.70 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours VPS by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Inter Turku heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Inter Turku have managed 11W 5D 11L from 27 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VPS's away record stands at 16W 3D 8L across 27 trips, a 1.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Inter Turku are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; VPS are on 1.68 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Inter Turku have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inter Turku
Current Season
VPS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inter Turku and VPS in coming into this match?
Inter Turku have gone 19W 11D 26L in their last 56 games (1.21 PPG), while VPS have gone 29W 8D 19L in their last 56 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inter Turku at home or VPS away?
VPS's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inter Turku at home: 1.41 PPG; VPS away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Inter Turku or VPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inter Turku have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, VPS in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VPS won 1-5 on 19 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Inter Turku have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VPS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Inter Turku
2
Draws
4
VPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inter Turku and VPS?
From 10 meetings on record, Inter Turku have won 4, VPS have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Inter Turku and VPS last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when VPS 0-1 Inter Turku.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Inter Turku are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inter Turku 59%, VPS 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Inter Turku) and 52% (VPS).
On the defensive side: VPS in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inter Turku home games / VPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inter Turku play VPS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Inter Turku's recent matches and 41% of VPS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inter Turku vs VPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Inter Turku's recent games and 52% of VPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inter Turku and VPS tend to score early?
Inter Turku have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, VPS in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Inter Turku cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over VPS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter Turku beat VPS 3-1 at Veritas Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter Turku 1.17 xG and VPS 1.50 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Inter Turku beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter Turku attack 0.97 / defence 1.07 against VPS attack 1.08 / defence 0.79, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inter Turku 27% | Draw 30% | VPS 43%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Inter Turku win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter Turku 61%, VPS 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inter Turku's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
VPS's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, VPS arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Inter Turku winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Inter Turku (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm. VPS (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.