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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Inter Turku and SJK share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Inter Turku and SJK finished level at 2-2 at Veritas Stadion, Championship Round - 8, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter Turku 2.12 xG and SJK 1.52 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter Turku attack 1.21 / defence 0.78 against SJK attack 1.17 / defence 1.04, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Inter Turku 51% | Draw 22% | SJK 27%, with Inter Turku to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter Turku 61%, SJK 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Inter Turku's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

SJK's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Inter Turku 1.72 PPG, SJK 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Inter Turku (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights