🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Inter Turku's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Inter Turku and Mariehamn finished level at 0-0 at Veritas Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter Turku 2.44 xG and Mariehamn 0.84 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Inter Turku fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Mariehamn landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter Turku attack 1.28 / defence 0.70 against Mariehamn attack 0.79 / defence 1.20, drawn from 34/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Inter Turku 73% | Draw 16% | Mariehamn 11%, with Inter Turku to win its most likely call at 73%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter Turku 60%, Mariehamn 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Inter Turku's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Mariehamn's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Inter Turku arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Inter Turku (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Mariehamn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights