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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant KuPS run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Inter Turku.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

KuPS beat Inter Turku 0-3 at Veritas Stadion, Championship Round - 4, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter Turku 1.64 xG and KuPS 1.14 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Inter Turku fell 1.6 short of their projected output. KuPS outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter Turku attack 1.23 / defence 0.76 against KuPS attack 0.91 / defence 0.80, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Inter Turku 48% | Draw 27% | KuPS 25%, with Inter Turku to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a KuPS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter Turku 60%, KuPS 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Inter Turku's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

KuPS's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Inter Turku 1.75 PPG, KuPS 2.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KuPS win broke the near-deadlock. Inter Turku (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. KuPS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights