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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Inter Turku and KuPS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Veritas Stadion, Regular Season - 1, as Inter Turku and KuPS drew 1-1 in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter Turku 1.83 xG and KuPS 1.31 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Inter Turku fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter Turku attack 1.03 / defence 0.97 against KuPS attack 1.00 / defence 0.97, drawn from 22/22 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Inter Turku 49% | Draw 23% | KuPS 27%, with Inter Turku to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter Turku 61%, KuPS 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Inter Turku's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

KuPS's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Inter Turku (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights