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Inter Turku cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ilves.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Inter Turku beat Ilves 2-0 at Veritas Stadion, Championship Round - 10, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter Turku 1.74 xG and Ilves 1.48 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ilves landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter Turku attack 1.20 / defence 0.79 against Ilves attack 1.12 / defence 0.87, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Inter Turku 43% | Draw 25% | Ilves 32%, with Inter Turku to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter Turku 62%, Ilves 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Inter Turku's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Ilves's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Inter Turku 1.71 PPG, Ilves 1.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Inter Turku win broke the near-deadlock. Inter Turku (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Ilves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights