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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Inter Turku cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Ilves.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Inter Turku beat Ilves 3-1 at Veritas Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter Turku 1.61 xG and Ilves 1.30 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Inter Turku beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter Turku attack 1.07 / defence 0.73 against Ilves attack 1.07 / defence 0.97, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Inter Turku 45% | Draw 24% | Ilves 31%, with Inter Turku to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter Turku 61%, Ilves 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Inter Turku's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Ilves's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Inter Turku 1.37 PPG, Ilves 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Inter Turku win broke the near-deadlock. Inter Turku (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm. Ilves (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights