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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Inter Turku and Haka share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Veritas Stadion, Regular Season - 10, as Inter Turku and Haka drew 1-1 in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter Turku 1.80 xG and Haka 1.04 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Inter Turku fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter Turku attack 1.24 / defence 0.78 against Haka attack 0.93 / defence 1.04, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Inter Turku 55% | Draw 23% | Haka 22%, with Inter Turku to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter Turku 62%, Haka 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Inter Turku's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Haka's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Inter Turku 1.38 PPG, Haka 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights