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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Inter Turku cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FF Jaro.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Inter Turku beat FF Jaro 3-1 at Veritas Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter Turku 1.91 xG and FF Jaro 0.88 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Inter Turku beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter Turku attack 1.16 / defence 0.66 against FF Jaro attack 0.91 / defence 1.12, drawn from 36/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Inter Turku 61% | Draw 24% | FF Jaro 16%, with Inter Turku to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter Turku 50%, FF Jaro 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Inter Turku's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

FF Jaro's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Inter Turku arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Inter Turku (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm. FF Jaro (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights