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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Inter Turku edge out AC Oulu 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Inter Turku beat AC Oulu 3-2 at Veritas Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter Turku 2.15 xG and AC Oulu 0.86 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Inter Turku beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AC Oulu outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter Turku attack 1.31 / defence 0.69 against AC Oulu attack 0.81 / defence 1.05, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Inter Turku 66% | Draw 20% | AC Oulu 13%, with Inter Turku to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter Turku 60%, AC Oulu 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Inter Turku's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

AC Oulu's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Inter Turku arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Inter Turku (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AC Oulu (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights