Ilves 0-2 VPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ilves at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ilves vs VPS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 17 as Ilves welcome VPS to Ratinan Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 28 July 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ilves — All Games: 1W 7D 2L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves at Ratinan Stadion this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, VPS stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for VPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, VPS have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. VPS's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Ilves's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ilves, 2 for VPS and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2023, ended 2–0 with Ilves winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ilves in-play tendencies (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
VPS in-play tendencies (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ilves 60% versus VPS 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ilves 49% | VPS 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 1.12 xG and VPS 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 0.923 / defence 0.961 | VPS attack 0.971 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.235 / away 1.037. Data: 38 Ilves games / 39 VPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ilves 37% | Draw 33% | VPS 29%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | VPS 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ilves at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form VPS (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ilves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ilves 70% | VPS 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs VPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Ratinan Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 28 Jul 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 37% | Draw 33% | VPS 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Ilves 1.12 / VPS 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 0.923 / def 0.961 | VPS attack 0.971 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.235 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Ilves (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
0.97
VPS xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs VPS kick off?
Ilves vs VPS kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 28 July 2023 at Ratinan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs VPS?
Ilves 0 - 2 VPS.
Where is Ilves vs VPS being played?
The match is being played at Ratinan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs VPS part of?
Ilves vs VPS is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs VPS?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 37% chance of winning, VPS a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs VPS?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Ilves and VPS will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs VPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and VPS?
Record (3 meetings): Ilves 1W | Draws 0 | VPS 2W.
What form are Ilves and VPS in?
Ilves (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. VPS (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ilves's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against VPS's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, VPS's attack versus Ilves's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
37%
2.68
33%
2.99
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Ilves xG
Total xG
2.09
0.97
VPS xG
2.68
37%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
10%
10.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 11.9 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs VPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Ilves and VPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Ilves and 0.97 for VPS, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs VPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ilves's recent record stands at 12W 15D 16L from 43 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VPS, meanwhile, have gone 18W 7D 18L across 43 games — 1.42 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for VPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ilves on 1.19 PPG, VPS on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ilves have managed 7W 6D 9L from 22 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VPS's away record stands at 11W 3D 8L across 22 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ilves are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; VPS are on 1.60 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ilves have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Blended
VPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ilves and VPS in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 12W 15D 16L in their last 43 games (1.19 PPG), while VPS have gone 18W 7D 18L in their last 43 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or VPS away?
VPS's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 1.23 PPG; VPS away: 1.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2022, when VPS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ilves's record when hosting VPS specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ilves
1
Draws
5
VPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and VPS?
From 10 meetings on record, Ilves have won 4, VPS have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and VPS last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when VPS 3-2 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and VPS?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ilves 68%, VPS 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Ilves) and 59% (VPS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / VPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ilves play VPS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Ilves's games and 50% of VPS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ilves vs VPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Ilves's matches and 59% of VPS's.
Do Ilves and VPS tend to score early?
Ilves have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, VPS in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VPS cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ilves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VPS beat Ilves 0-2 at Ratinan Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 1.12 xG and VPS 0.97 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ilves fell 1.1 short of their projected output. VPS outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 0.92 / defence 0.96 against VPS attack 0.97 / defence 0.99, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 37% | Draw 33% | VPS 29%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual VPS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 49%, VPS 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
VPS's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ilves 1.19 PPG, VPS 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VPS win broke the near-deadlock. Ilves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward. VPS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.