Ilves 2-0 SJK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ilves at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ilves vs SJK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ilves and SJK meet at Tammelan Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Relegation Group - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ilves's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tammelan Stadion, Ilves have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tammelan Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Ilves are significantly better at Tammelan Stadion than their overall form suggests.
SJK have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SJK have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ilves lead 1W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 5 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Jun 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Ilves — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
SJK — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ilves 62% and SJK 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Ilves 69% | SJK 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 1.49 xG and SJK 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 1.021 / defence 0.923 | SJK attack 0.842 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.166. Data: 44 Ilves games / 44 SJK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ilves 51% | Draw 26% | SJK 23%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | SJK 4.35. Ilves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ilves as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ilves if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ilves 30% | SJK 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Group - 27 | Venue: Tammelan Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 51% | Draw 26% | SJK 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Ilves 1.49 / SJK 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 1.021 / def 0.923 | SJK attack 0.842 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Ilves (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
0.91
SJK xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs SJK kick off?
Ilves vs SJK kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Tammelan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs SJK?
Ilves 2 - 0 SJK.
Where is Ilves vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Tammelan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs SJK part of?
Ilves vs SJK is a Relegation Group - 27 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 51% chance of winning, SJK a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Ilves and SJK will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and SJK?
Record (9 meetings): Ilves 1W | Draws 5 | SJK 3W.
What form are Ilves and SJK in?
Ilves (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. SJK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ilves's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against SJK's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — SJK's attack (0.84x) against Ilves's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
51%
1.97
26%
3.81
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Ilves xG
Total xG
2.39
0.91
SJK xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
21%
4.88
5%
19.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.3 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Ilves and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Ilves and 0.91 for SJK, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs SJK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, Ilves have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 28W 11D 19L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SJK's form line: 23W 17D 18L from 58 games, 1.48 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-W. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Ilves against 1.48 for SJK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ilves have posted 2.03 PPG from 29 outings (18W 5D 6L).
On the road, SJK have gone 9W 10D 10L from 29 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ilves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ilves are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; SJK are on 1.71 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ilves have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; SJK in 66%.
Last 58 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Blended
SJK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ilves and SJK in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 28W 11D 19L in their last 58 games (1.64 PPG), while SJK have gone 23W 17D 18L in their last 58 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or SJK away?
Ilves's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 2.03 PPG; SJK away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ilves won 4-0 on 19 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ilves have gone 2W 3D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against SJK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Ilves
5
Draws
3
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and SJK?
From 10 meetings on record, Ilves have won 2, SJK have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and SJK last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Ilves 2-0 SJK.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and SJK?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ilves 62%, SJK 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Ilves and 66% for SJK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ilves keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; SJK in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ilves play SJK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Ilves's games and 66% of SJK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ilves vs SJK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Ilves's matches and 66% of SJK's.
Do Ilves and SJK tend to score early?
Ilves have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, SJK in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ilves cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SJK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves beat SJK 2-0 at Tammelan Stadion, Relegation Group - 27, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 1.49 xG and SJK 0.91 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. SJK landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.02 / defence 0.92 against SJK attack 0.84 / defence 1.06, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 51% | Draw 26% | SJK 23%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 69%, SJK 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
SJK's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ilves 1.64 PPG, SJK 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ilves win broke the near-deadlock. Ilves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. SJK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.