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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ilves and SJK share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ilves and SJK finished level at 3-3 at Tammelan Stadion, Championship Round - 9, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 1.86 xG and SJK 1.71 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Ilves beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SJK outscored their 1.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.06 / defence 0.89 against SJK attack 1.17 / defence 1.04, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ilves 41% | Draw 24% | SJK 35%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 63%, SJK 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ilves's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

SJK's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ilves 1.98 PPG, SJK 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ilves (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SJK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights